Paint industry supply chain has fundamentally broken. Companies that believe costs are temporary pain they are waiting for the economy to normalize are wrong. Paint industry supply chain has fundamentally broken. Prices are adjusting to new baseline.
The math of price increases: Paint costs show raw materials at 40 to 50 percent of total, labour and operations at 15 to 20 percent, packaging at 10 to 15 percent, overhead at 20 to 25 percent, and profit at 10 to 15 percent. Need minus 8 to 10 percent for materials, minus 5 to 7 percent for energy and logistics, plus 2 to 3 percent — that is what it takes to hit the target. Total needed is 15 to 20 percent. PPG’s 20 percent makes perfect sense.
The forces are structural. Crude oil adds 40 to 50 percent structural costs. Transportation adds up to 25 to 35 percent capacity maxed — all structural. Forward forecast for Q2 to Q3 2026 shows further increases if disruptions worsen. Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 sees stabilisation possible. 2027 sees elevated baseline costs remaining. New baseline is 15 to 25 percent above 2024 levels.
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