The US midterm result could lower the risk of sudden US tariff hikes and give India more room in trade talks, though uncertainty will persist, according to a report by Emkay Global Financial Services released on November 5, 2026. On US midterms and India trade, Emkay said the outcome “probably will not change the tariff structure much.”
The result ended unified Republican control of Congress, per the IANS report of the findings.
What Does the Report Say About Tariffs?
The proposed 18% US tariff framework rate was never implemented, and Indian goods now face a 10% Section 301 duty. The report says the US has lost leverage under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), so future escalation may need investigation-based action under Section 301 and Section 232, reducing sudden tariff shocks. It lists the drivers ahead as “Fewer new escalation tools, more pressure to deliver consumer affordability, and deals before 2028.”
Is the Urgency of a US Trade Deal Fading?
Emkay says India’s urgency to conclude a US trade deal has decreased. It still flags risks: Section 232 sector tariffs, especially on pharmaceuticals and electronics, and the possibility that a setback in diplomacy involving Russia or Iran could renew US pressure over India’s oil imports. It adds that “headline volatility will persist even as the bias softens.”
Market and Trade Reaction
The report says Brent crude is down 19% from October highs at $95 per barrel, while India’s oil import bill is up 24% in the fiscal year to date with Brent averaging $97. It sees softer crude, a weaker dollar and lower tariff volatility supporting the rupee and export outlook, favouring “a gradual compression of India risk premia over a sharp re-rating.” It notes the RBI faces a $239 billion forward dollar liability.
What Happens Next?
Whether a US-India deal is signed soon remains open; the report points to continued headline volatility rather than a clear timeline.
Frequently Asked Questions
What tariff do Indian goods face in the US now?
According to Emkay, a 10% Section 301 duty; the proposed 18% framework rate was never implemented.
Which sectors face Section 232 risk?
Pharmaceuticals and electronics.
Has the urgency of a US-India deal changed?
Emkay says it has decreased.
Sources: ANI (November 5, 2026) and IANS via The Hans India (November 5, 2026), both citing an Emkay Global report.
Leave a comment